Tag Archives: SHLD

Walmart and Sears Get Lowest Customer Satisfaction Ratings

The recently published 2017 American Customer Satisfaction Index (ACSI) for retail stores and websites shows that customer satisfaction is down slightly overall from a record high posted in 2016. The retail sector slipped 0.3% overall from an index score of 78.4 to 78.1.

Department stores and specialty retailers lost the most ground, likely due to continuing satisfaction from shopping online. Walmart Inc. (NYSE: WMT) dropped one point to 71, the lowest among the department/discount stores included in the survey. Sears Holdings Corp. (NASDAQ: SHLD) tied with Dollar General Inc. (NYSE: DG) at a next-lowest 73.

One bit of good news for Walmart is that its Sam’s Club warehouse stores scored an 80 to tie for third behind Costco Wholesale Corp. (NASDAQ: COST) at 83 and Nordstrom Inc. (NYSE: JWN) at 81.

Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) once again led online retailers with an index score of 85. The average score among all online retailers was 82 and no online store scored below 81. Even so, the average score dipped 1.2% year over year. ACSI noted:

[Online] remains by far the most satisfying place to shop. The industry’s decline is the result of weaker scores for companies at either end of the size scale. Amazon (accounting for 43& of the total online sales), recedes 1% to 85. The bulk of the category, however, is made up of smaller online retailers and the websites of brick-and-mortar stores.

Walmart was included in the ACSI’s “all others” category for online retailers.

Among supermarkets, Walmart again finished dead last with an index score of 73 versus an average of 79 and a high for Publix of 86. Costco scored 83 while Kroger Co. (NYSE: KR) and Amazon’s Whole Foods both scored 81.

Walmart also was the lowest scoring retailer for health and personal care stores, with an index score of 75 against an average of 79. Sears’ Kmart stores tied with Kroger for the top score of 80.

Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD) was the lowest scoring specialty store with an index score of 76 versus a category average of 79. The best score went to L Brands Inc. (NYSE: LB) with a score of 85 at its Victoria’s Secret and Bath & Body Works stores. Sporting goods retailer Cabela’s, now part of Bass Pro Shops, ranked second with a score of 82.

ALSO READ: Wall Street Very Positive on Retail: 5 Top Stocks to Buy Now

Best Buy Co Inc Has Found Its Niche – And So Has Its Stock

The biggest fears surrounding Best Buy Co Inc (NYSE:BBY) have yet to be realized. The bear case for Best Buy stock was based on the “showroom effect.” In essence, customers would view items in Best Buy stores — and then buy them from Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) or eBay Inc (NASDAQ:EBAY). Best Buy’s brick-and-mortar costs would prevent it from being fully price-competitive with online-only rivals, margins would compress, and BBY stock would sink.

It hasn’t played out that way. Best Buy stock has gained more than 500% from late 2012 lows just above $10. It’s doubled just since early last year. Comparable-store sales have been positive, albeit modestly so — 0.3%, 0.5%, and 0.5% in fiscal 2017, 2016, and 2015. But they’ve accelerated so far this year, to a likely 4% or so for the full year.

It appears Best Buy has found its footing. BBY stock has done the same, gaining 32% year-to-date. But nearly all of those gains came in the first half of the year. Best Buy stock actually has pulled back modestly since I argued investors should sell the news after a post-earnings jump in May.

Even a strong performance YTD and a still-cheap valuation haven’t changed my opinion since then. There are worse stocks in the market, no doubt — and in retail, in particular. But consistent earnings growth is far from guaranteed. Looking forward, I’m not yet convinced Best Buy is quite out of the woods.

The Bull Case for Best Buy Stock

Q3 earnings certainly seem to support the argument that Best Buy stock is undervalued. Even though the headline numbers missed consensus, and Q4 guidance was a bit light, the quarter looks solid, if not outright impressive.

Comparable sales rose 4.4% year-over-year, including a 22% improvement in e-commerce sales. Adjusted EPS jumped 30%. That performance came despite modest impact from hurricanes in the quarter.

Meanwhile, BBY stock still trades at about 14x FY18 (ending January) EPS. That seems far too low for that type of growth.

But if you look closer, Best Buy’s Q3 isn’t quite as impressive. A lower tax rate provided a benefit to EPS. So did a 4.5% reduction in the share count, thanks to share buybacks. Operating income, for instance, rose a slower, but still solid, 15% year-over-year.

That’s not to say it was a bad quarter. It wasn’t, by any means. The key question is whether that type of performance will continue going forward.

The Risks To Best Buy Stock

As strong as FY18 has looked through the first three quarters, the concerns here aren’t completely erased. For one, Best Buy’s apparent status as the last major electronics retailer standing isn’t necessarily a good thing. For years, customer defections from struggling and eventually bankrupt rivals like Circuit City, hhgregg, and even RadioShack have provided a tailwind to Best Buy sales. That benefit should recede going forward.

Looking beyond competition, I see concerns about what it is, precisely, that Best Buy is selling. Best Buy floors contain a lot of challenged categories. Effective pricing is declining in the mobile space, and the intense competition among providers like Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE:VZ), AT&T Inc. (NYSE:T), and Sprint Corp (NYSE:S) could pressure Best Buy’s commissions from smartphone contract sales.

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Sales of both desktop and laptop PCs are stalling out. TV pricing continues to come down. The steady demise of Sears Holdings Corp (NASDAQ:SHLD) has benefited Best Buy’s appliance sales: That category has been the company’s strongest over the past eleven quarters. But J C Penney Company Inc (NYSE:JCP) is now targeting that space, and Home Depot Inc (NYSE:HD) and Lowe’s Companies, Inc. (NYSE:LOW) are redoubling their own efforts.

Overall, Best Buy’s market likely isn’t growing much, if at all. In fact, it may be shrinking. Pricing power is going to be limited by online rivals. With market-share gains likely to moderate simply because Best Buy already has dominant share, those factors suggest revenue growth here is going to be pretty minimal going forward.

Best Buy Stock Looks OK – But Not A Best Buy

Modest revenue growth probably is enough to support BBY, and maybe even a little upside. Cost control can keep margins intact. Best Buy throws off a lot of cash, which can be used to buy back shares and raise a dividend that already yields 2.4%.

But that’s not really a compelling case. And the tight range in which Best Buy stock has traded since May seems to support the idea that, for now, the market thinks the stock is priced about right. At this point, I agree. Coming out of Q2, I thought the easy money had been made in Best Buy. Six months, and two earnings reports, later, I still think that’s the case.

As of this writing, Vince Martin has no positions in any securities mentioned.

4 Darling Dividend Stocks Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) Will Crush Next

Let’s face it: brands are dead—and that’s terrible news for the 4 household names (and their landlords) we need to talk about today.

Research from Scott Galloway, founder of digital-research firm L2, tells the tale.

Galloway looked at the 13 S&P 500 stocks that have beaten the market for five straight years and found something shocking: just one, Under Armour Inc (NYSE:UAA), is a consumer brand.

And as Galloway points out, there’s no way UA will keep that run going.

UA: The Last Brand Standing—for Now

The other 12 names on the list are mostly innovators that have sliced into old-school businesses and flipped them on their heads—think Facebook Inc (NASDAQ:FB), salesforce.com, inc. (NYSE:CRM) and, of course, Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN).

But don’t take that to mean I’m recommending any of these tech juggernauts today. (Because I can’t very well preach the gospel on dividends and then recommend 3 stocks with no payout at all!)

What I am saying is that you’ll save yourself a lot of agony if you dump the 4 companies below, all of which are either leaning hard on over-the-hill banners or are sitting ducks for Jeff Bezos and company.

P&G: Sell on Management’s Panic

Procter & Gamble Co (NYSE:PG) owns dozens of brands, including Gillette: at 115 years, the razor name is one of the oldest brands there is. That, plus millions of dollars of print and TV advertising, has prompted generations of men to grab their Gillette razors every morning without a second thought.

But in today’s world, where folks make decisions on a tweet or an online review, those millions of dollars suddenly mean zero.

Because the moment upstarts like Harry’s and Dollar Shave Club showed up, Gillette started bleeding market share (for six years and counting!). Cornered, it slashed its prices by up to 20% last April.

That’s a problem ricocheting throughout P&G, which has only reported revenue growth in four of the last 20 quarters! But you wouldn’t know by looking at earnings per share (EPS), which jumped 19% in its fiscal fourth quarter (ended June 30), even though revenue was flat.

So what’s the story behind P&G’s levitating earnings? Cost cuts, of course. You can already see the effect in P&G’s dividend:

Dividend Growth Goes Flat

And make no mistake, this payout will remain under pressure: P&G forked out 77% of free cash flow as dividends in the last 12 months, the highest level in 17 years!

Big Food Is in Big Trouble

Kraft Heinz Co (NASDAQ:KHC): Last week I gave you three big-food stocks that are on the wrong side of consumer tastes. You can add Kraft-Heinz to that list.

To see how the game has changed, look no further than the closest supermarket: people are clearly craving more natural and organic food and less processed fare. Kraft-Heinz’s brands are way behind the curve:

Source: kraftheinzcompany.com

No wonder the consumer-staples giant is showing the same pattern we see again and again in the industry: rising earnings supported entirely by cost cuts—while nimble local food producers lure away customers. In the second quarter, Kraft-Heinz’s sales dipped 1.7% while adjusted EPS soared 15%.

The most worrying sign? A number few folks care to look at: dividends as a percentage of free cash flow (or operating cash flow minus capital expenditures). In the last 12 months, Kraft-Heinz paid out 142% of FCF as dividends, much more than it brought in!

Amazon’s purchase of Whole Foods—and its price slashing at the chain—is also a headache for KHC, because it means more cheaper, healthier products out there to tempt folks away from its preservative-stuffed packaged lineup.

Sure, Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE:BRK.B) is a major shareholder, with a 27% stake, but that’s not enough to offset Kraft-Heinz’s weak growth prospects, ho-hum 3% dividend yield, middling dividend growth and nosebleed P/E ratio of 26.3.

Wal-Mart: No Match for Amazon

The media was all over the 60% growth in online sales in the Wal-Mart Stores Inc (NYSE:WMT) second-quarter earnings report on August 17. Overall, the chain’s sales gained 2.1%, while adjusted EPS nudged up a little less than 1%.

Here’s the problem: Amazon still has a stranglehold on online retail, with a 76% share, according to Wired.

Meantime, the latest earnings report brought another concern: lower margins as Wal-Mart pours cash into e-commerce and slashes prices in a futile bid to close the gap.

What galls me most about Wal-Mart is its stingy dividend, which has been rising by just a penny a year since 2013. Management could easily do more, with the payout eating up just 48% of earnings and 35% of FCF.

Management Cheaps Out

Those piddling payouts put a brake on the stock’s upside, which is already strained by its P/E ratio of 19.2, way above its five-year average of 15.4. There are far better deals elsewhere, like in the 8.5% dividend payer I’ll tell you about at the very end of this article.

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Retail REITs: Collateral Damage

When it comes to retail REITs, one fact stands out: America is awash in malls. In fact, we’re sitting on more gross leasable shopping area per person than any other developed country!

This comes as more sales shift online, brick-and-mortar retailers like Sears Holdings Corp (NASDAQ:SHLD) race to shutter stores and consumers spend more on experiences and less on stuff.

That doesn’t mean the death of the mall is upon us, but it does mean I’m staying away from retail REITs, particularly marginal players like DDR Corp (NYSE:DDR), owner of 298 shopping centers across the country.

The stock pays a sky-high 7.4% dividend, but that’s a sign of risk, not fatter payouts: the stock has cratered 25% this year!

The dividend is well covered, at 66% of trailing-twelve-month funds from operations (FFO, the REIT equivalent of EPS), but there are plenty of warning signs that should make you very hesitant about investing in DDR right now.

The first is stalled dividend growth: after reliable yearly hikes since 2010, management has called a halt, freezing the payout at $0.19 per quarter.

DDR’s Dividend Goes Cold

Why? Because growth packed its bags and moved out! DDR’s FFO has been stuck at $0.30 for three of the last four quarters, and FFO actually fell 10%, from $0.33 year-over-year in the latest quarter.

Meantime, occupancy has been sliding, coming in at 93.7% in Q2, down from 96.1% a year ago, and the company expects it to nudge lower still, to between 93.0% and 93.5% for the full year.

Finally, at $4.7 billion, DDR’s long-term debt is 30% higher than its $3.6-billion market cap! That’s a huge weight to carry as interest rates head higher—and Amazon continues to circle.

Alert: This Cheap 8.5% Dividend Won’t Last!

My top REIT buy now recently hiked its dividend again—by 4% over last quarter’s payout. That marks this income wonder’s 20th consecutive quarterly dividend hike!

Dividend Hikes Every Quarter

It pays an 8.1% yield today—but that leaps to an 8.5% forward yield when you consider we’ll see 4 MORE dividend increases in the next year.

And the stock is trading for less than 10-times funds from operations. Cheap!

However I expect its valuation and stock price to spike 20% over the next 12 months as more money stampedes into its REIT sector (and no, I’m NOT talking about a retail REIT here).

That makes NOW the time to buy and lock in that 8.5% payout!

Now I’m ready to share all the profitable details on this off-the radar (for now) REIT with you. I’ll also take the wraps off my No. 2 pick—a 7.6% payer backed by an unstoppable trend that will deliver growing dividends for the next 30 years!

This stock deserves a place in your portfolio for 3 simple reasons:

It’s recession proof It yields a fat (and secure) 7.6% and Its dividend increases are actually accelerating.

Don’t miss your chance to grab these 2 income wonders before their share prices run away from us, driving their fat dividend yields lower in the process. All you have to do is CLICK HERE and I’ll give you their names, tickers, buy prices and my complete REIT investing strategy now.


Kohl’s – Quite The Compelling Value Buy

Kohl’s and what it does


Source – Kohl’s

Kohl’s (NYSE:KSS) operates around 1,150 stores in the US as of the second quarter released this week. It sells various items such as apparel, jewelry and home goods; however, much of its sales are apparel.

The unique aspect about Kohl’s, in my opinion, is its pricing and quality. The company seems to know how to offer good quality clothing for great prices, alongside offering promotions that seem to lure in shoppers (coupons on its web page regularly, usable in store or online).

I have routinely found “final sale” men’s shirts going for a steal of $4-7 (red tags), which presumably helps Kohl’s unload these items instead of selling them to a third party such as Marshalls. The other apparel can range between $7.99 and as high as $50, but usually averages $20 in my experience. It offers these price points within casual, dress and athletic areas.

Put simply, I find that Kohl’s numerous offerings contain superior quality, value, promotions, and it has locations (mostly outside traditional malls) that are quite appealing.

The fundamentals, briefly

Clearly, all retailers are not created equal, and Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) is NOT going to destroy every brick and mortar outlet. Believing so is just pure folly. Although many retailers that don’t offer the combination of benefits such as value, experience, quality and location will eventually close up or simply keep doing poorly.

The overcapacity in retail space is still very evident; thus, it would not be bad for Kohl’s if several competitors closed up.

The market appears confused and asleep on the entire retail sector. This is no more evident than the reaction on the stock yesterday, opening at $43 in the early morning and tumbling to $38 thereafter.

If I had to pick winners and losers based on quality, value, location and experience, I would put among the top:

Kohl’s, Target (NYSE:TGT), and Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT).

Among the bottom I would probably put:

Macy’s (NYSE:M) Sears (NASDAQ:SHLD), and J.C. Penney (NYSE:JCP).

As discussed above, Kohl’s has $29.75 in tangible book value (or $5 billion constituting around 80% of its market cap at $39), primarily within property and inventories. It earns a whopping $3.50 or so per year with okay margins. The cash flow is simply extraordinary, considering depreciation of around $240M per quarter, that I don’t even worry about its ST payables of around $2.6 billion or LT debt and obligations of around $4.5 billion.

The company currently engages in a large buyback that increases the EPS and is a good use of capital outside of paying down debt and increasing liquidity. This buyback averages roughly 1.35 million shares PER MONTH (using January 29-April 29 2017’s purchases). To put this in perspective, with around 168 million shares outstanding, the company purchases roughly 0.81% of all shares per month. These purchases have the benefit of supporting the stock, lowering current and future dividend cost, raising EPS, and generally returning value to shareholders. I would suggest that Kohl’s continue buying back stock so long as its stock is under $50, but should the stock rise over $50, pause and redeem costly debt instead.

It pays a large dividend of $0.55 per quarter, which has been increased steadily since 2013. To put this in perspective, on September 20, you will receive 1.41% back in cash, considering a $39 stock price today, and still hold any benefits of KSS longer term.


Historical Chart

Kohl’s stock history is also impressive. The stock chart above, from 1993 to 2017, shows that Kohl’s often rises to levels of between $55 and $70 while only falling below $35 during the 2009 crash. Seemingly, unless business deteriorates on a massive scale, it appears value is consistently seen around $40.


The bottom line is that for $39, you get $29.75 in tangible book value, an EPS rate of around $3.50 per year, a $2.20 dividend per year, a very impressive buyback, and a stable stock historically over $30. The P/E is only around 3 or 4 if you exclude tangible book from the premium calculation.

Additionally, there are around 32 million shares short (or 20%) on Kohl’s, which have to cover eventually if their bets prove to be misplaced or foolish. Usually I peruse the short argument due to their meticulous research and intelligence. Yet, I suspect the short interest in Kohl’s may be a case of a sector short regardless of specifics in the company. Institutional ownership is a large 108% of outstanding shares. Just on these two factors, it appears that 28% over the outstanding shares exist in some form (combined with the 0.81% buyback per month).

I believe Kohl’s has various strengths versus competitors, and will only benefit more if weak competitors go out of business. One should definitely not look at J.C. Penney and Macy’s and transfer their misfortune onto Kohl’s. After all, people have to shop somewhere! Kohl’s retains an edge, in my opinion, in location, selection, value and quality. Its store designs are also impressive.

As a value play and a long-term hold, this one has all the makings of a $60 or $70 target again in the future. Given the current sentiment in retail, I believe you could buy this on dips successfully and need not chase it yet over $43.

At $39, I would consider Kohl’s quite the compelling value buy indeed.

Disclosure: I am/we are long KSS.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Additional disclosure: As always, verify the figures presented herein yourself. If the fundamentals or stock price should meaningfully change, I may adjust my opinion.

About this article:ExpandTagged: Investing Ideas, Long Ideas, Services, Department StoresWant to share your opinion on this article? Add a comment.Disagree with this article? Submit your own.To report a factual error in this article, click here

Yikes! These 7 brand-name retailers are closing…

Every week, it seems a new retailer is shuttering stores.

According to an estimate fromCredit Suisse, U.S. retailers are on track for more than 8,000 store closings this year, even more than in 2008, at the peak of the financial crisis. Some have called it a retail apocalypse, as the forces of e-commerce and bloated debt burdens are forcing a number of retailers to declare bankruptcy or downsize.Urban Outfitters’CEO declared that after years of overexpansion, “the retail bubble has burst.”

Here are the seven brand-name retailers that are closing the most stores this year.

1.RadioShack: 1,430 stores

RadioShack, once known as “America’s technology store,” has been in decline for a long time. After years of losses, the company declared bankruptcy in 2015, but a deal withSprint(NYSE: S) saved much of its store base at the time. However, that fix proved temporary, as the company filed for bankruptcy protection again in March and then closed 1,00 0 stores over Memorial Day weekend, on top of 430 it had previously closed. That’s left just 70 company-owned stores and 500 dealer-owned locations operating.

Mismanagement and aggressive share buybacks dug RadioShack’s grave. Like much of electronics retail, including H H Gregg and Circuit City, it’s gone belly-up.


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Moody's: Number of distressed retailers tops total during financial crisis

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True Religion seeks a revival with bankruptcy filing

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Sears, J.C. Penney, Kmart, Macy's: These retailers are closing stores in 2017

 (Photo: Payless ShoeSource)

2. Payless ShoeSource: 800 stores

Privately held Payless ShoeSource is also meeting its maker. The discount footwear chain filed for bankruptcy protection in April, saying at the time it would close 400 stores and later added another 400 to the list.

That’s only 20% of its store base of 4,000, meaning we’ll probably see more store closings from Payless. As with other mall-based retailers, Payless has suffered from declining traffic to shopping centers, a trend that’s unlikely to reverse. Therefore, the prospects of a Payless comeback are doubtful.

 (Photo: Rue21)

3. Rue21: 400 stores

Following a long list of other teen retailers, including American Apparel and Aeropostale, Rue21 filed for bankruptcy protection in May, saying it would close approximately 400 stores out of its fleet of 1,179.The retailer was seeking the court’s permission to borrow $175 million in additional financing, and the company expressed optimism for its business after improving its cost structure. Still, the outlook remains dim for a mall-based teen retailer like Rue21.

 (Photo: Gymboree)

4. Gymboree: 375 to 450 stores

Children’s-apparel retailer Gymboree filed for bankruptcy protection just weeks ago, saying it would close between 375 and 450 stores, about a third of its store base of 1,281, as it seeks to free itself of $1 billion in debt.The retailer lost $324 million in its most recent quarter, and it has struggled even as rivalChildren’s Placehas thrived. Gymboree’s competitor has had one of the best-performing stocks in recent years.

Unloading debt is a good start, but Gymboree looks like a classic case of overexpansion.

 (Photo: Ann Taylor)

5. Ascena Retail Group: 268 to 667 stores

Ascena Retail Group, the parent of brands such as Ann Taylor, Lane Bryant, and Dress Barn, said in June it will close 268 stores and could shutter as many as 667 over the next two years. Ascena is one of the biggest apparel retailers in the country, with 4,850 stores under its umbrella as of the end of its most recent quarter.

Though it posted a small adjusted profit in its most recent report, same-store sales plunged 8%, a sign that the company is over-stored.

 (Photo: Sears Holdings)

6. Sears: 265 stores

Unlike the other retailers on this list,Sears Holdings Corp.(NASDAQ: SHLD) has yet to declare bankruptcy, but many expect the department-store chain to fold either this year or next. Sears, which was the country’s largest retailer for much of the 20th century, has had a long fall from grace. It hasn’t posted an annual operating profit since 2010, and sales have plummeted in the meantime.

The retailer just announced another 20 store closings, bringing the grand total to 265 this year. More are likely to come, as both it and its sister chain, Kmart, are bleeding cash.

 (Photo: The Motley Fool)

Image source: The Limited

7. The Limited: 250 stores

The Limited was one of the first retailers to announce mass store closings this year, as the onetimeL Brandssubsidiary said at the start of 2017 that it will shut down all of its remaining 250 stores. It declared bankruptcy shortly after that.

At the time of the announcement, the company said its website would continue to operate, though it currently has just a “Coming Soon” banner across it.

Private-equity firm Sycamore Partners won the auction for its e-commerce business and intellectual property, with a bid of $26.8 million, and is planning on relaunching the online business.

Jeremy Bowman has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

The Motley Fool is a USA TODAY content partner offering financial news, analysis and commentary designed to help people take control of their financial lives. Its content is produced independently of USA TODAY.

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